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Everywhere you look, people are talking about a potential recession. And if you’re planning to buy or sell a house, this may leave you wondering if your plans are still a wise move. To help ease your mind, experts are saying that if we do officially enter a recession, it’ll be mild and short. As the Federal Reserve explained in their March meeting:
“. . . the staff’s projection at the time of the March meeting included a mild recession starting later this year, with a recovery over the subsequent two years.”
While a recession may be on the horizon, it won’t be one for the housing market record books like the crash in 2008. What we have to remember is that a recession doesn’t always lead to a housing crisis.
To prove it, let’s look at the historical data of what happened in real estate during previous recessions. That way you know why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession could mean for the housing market today.
A Recession Doesn’t Mean Falling Home Prices
To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six of them. So historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will always fall.
Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession will be a repeat of what happened to housing then. But today’s housing market isn’t about to crash because the fundamentals of the market are different than they were in 2008. Back then, one of the big reasons why prices fell was because there was a surplus of homes for sale at the same time distressed properties flooded the market. Today, the number of homes for sale is low, so while home prices may see slight declines in some areas and slight gains in others, a crash simply isn’t in the cards.
A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates
What a recession really means for the housing market is falling mortgage rates. As the graph below shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased.
Bankrate explains mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown:
“During a traditional recession, the Fed will usually lower interest rates. This creates an incentive for people to spend money and stimulate the economy. It also typically leads to more affordable mortgage rates, which leads to more opportunity for homebuyers.”
This year, mortgage rates have been quite volatile as they’ve responded to high inflation. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has hovered between roughly 6-7%, and that’s impacted affordability for many potential homebuyers.
But, if there is a recession, history tells us mortgage rates may fall below that threshold, even though the days of 3% are behind us.
Bottom Line
You don’t need to fear what a recession means for the housing market. If we do have a recession, experts say it will be mild and short, and history shows it also means mortgage rates go down.
Over the past year, home prices have been a widely debated topic. Some have said we’ll see a massive drop in prices and that this could be a repeat of 2008 – which hasn’t happened. Others have forecasted a real estate market that could see slight appreciation or depreciation depending on the area of the country. And as we get closer to the spring real estate market, experts are continuing to forecast what they believe will happen with home prices this year and beyond.
Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, says:
“While 2023 kicked off on a more optimistic note for the U.S. housing market, recent mortgage rate volatility highlights how much uncertainty remains. Nevertheless, the continued shortage of for-sale homes is likely to keep price declines modest, which are projected to top out at 3% peak to trough.”
Additionally, every quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a panel of over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts regarding their five-year expectations for future home prices in the United States. Here’s what they said most recently:
So, given this information and what experts are saying about home prices, the question you might be asking is: should I buy a home this spring? Here are three reasons you should consider making a move:
1. Buying a home helps you escape the cycle of rising rents. Over the past several decades, the median price of rent has risen consistently. The bottom line is, rent is going up.
2. Homeownership is a hedge against inflation. A key advantage of homeownership is that it’s one of the best hedges against inflation. When you buy a home with a fixed-rate mortgage, you secure your housing payment, so it won’t go up like it would if you rent.
3. Homeownership is a powerful wealth-building tool. The average net worth of a homeowner is $255,000 compared to $6,300 for a renter.
Experts are projecting slight price depreciation in the housing market this year, followed by steady appreciation. Given that, you may be wondering if you should move ahead with buying a home this spring. The decision to purchase a home is best made when you do it knowing all the facts and have an expert on your side.
Bottom Line
Let’s connect so you can make the most informed decision about your next move.
If you’re thinking about making a move this year, a turnaround in the housing market could be exactly what you’ve been waiting for. Let’s connect to talk about the latest trends in our area.
It doesn’t matter if you’re someone who closely follows the economy or not, chances are you’ve heard whispers of an upcoming recession. Economic conditions are determined by a broad range of factors, so rather than explaining them each in depth, let’s lean on the experts and what history tells us to see what could lie ahead. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, says:
A Recession Doesn’t Mean Falling Home Prices
A Recession Means Falling Mortgage Rates
Bottom Line
“Two-in-three economists are forecasting a recession in 2023 . . .”
As talk about a potential recession grows, you may be wondering what a recession could mean for the housing market. Here’s a look at the historical data to show what happened in real estate during previous recessions to help prove why you shouldn’t be afraid of what a recession could mean for the housing market today.
To show that home prices don’t fall every time there’s a recession, it helps to turn to historical data. As the graph below illustrates, looking at recessions going all the way back to 1980, home prices appreciated in four of the last six of them. So historically, when the economy slows down, it doesn’t mean home values will always fall.
Most people remember the housing crisis in 2008 (the larger of the two red bars in the graph above) and think another recession would be a repeat of what happened to housing then. But today’s housing market isn’t about to crash because the fundamentals of the market are different than they were in 2008. According to experts, home prices will vary by market and may go up or down depending on the local area. But the average of their 2023 forecasts shows prices will net neutral nationwide, not fall drastically like they did in 2008.
Research also helps paint the picture of how a recession could impact the cost of financing a home. As the graph below shows, historically, each time the economy slowed down, mortgage rates decreased.
Fortune explains mortgage rates typically fall during an economic slowdown:
“Over the past five recessions, mortgage rates have fallen an average of 1.8 percentage points from the peak seen during the recession to the trough. And in many cases, they continued to fall after the fact as it takes some time to turn things around even when the recession is technically over.”
In 2023, market experts say mortgage rates will likely stabilize below the peak we saw last year. That’s because mortgage rates tend to respond to inflation. And early signs show inflation is starting to cool. If inflation continues to ease, rates may fall a bit more, but the days of 3% are likely behind us.
The big takeaway is you don’t need to fear the word recession when it comes to housing. In fact, experts say a recession would be mild and housing would play a key role in a quick economic rebound. As the 2022 CEO Outlook from KPMG, says:
“Global CEOs see a ‘mild and short’ recession, yet optimistic about global economy over 3-year horizon . . .
More than 8 out of 10 anticipate a recession over the next 12 months, with more than half expecting it to be mild and short.”
While history doesn’t always repeat itself, we can learn from the past. According to historical data, in most recessions, home values have appreciated and mortgage rates have declined.
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home this year, let’s connect so you have expert advice on what’s happening in the housing market and what that means for your homeownership goals.
During the pandemic, second homes became popular because of the rise in work-from-home flexibility. That’s because owning a second home, especially in the luxury market, allowed those homeowners to spend more time in their favorite places or with different home features. Keep in mind, a luxury home isn’t only defined by price. In a recent article, Investopedia shares additional factors that push a home into this category: location, such as a home on the water or in a desirable city, and features, the things that make the home itself feel luxurious.
A recent report from the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing (ILHM) explains just how much remote work impacted the demand for second and luxury homes:
“The unprecedented ten-fold increase towards remote work since the pandemic is an historic development that will continue to fuel second home demand for many years to come.”
But what if you bought a second home that you no longer use? If you’re now shifting back into the office or are seeing your priorities and needs change, you may find you’re not utilizing your second home as much. If so, it may be time to sell it.
And if you own what’s considered a luxury home, buyer demand for it may be even greater. In another report, the Institute for Luxury Home Marketing explains:
“. . . the last few years have left their legacy for the luxury market. While it might only represent a small percentage of the overall real estate market, luxury homeownership’s influence is growing. Not only has the purchase of homes valued over $1 million (a figure considered by the National Association of Realtors to be a benchmark for luxury) tripled from 2.6% to 6.5% since 2018, but demand for multiple luxury properties has soared over the last two years.
This phenomenal increase has been driven by a growing affluent demographic who consider owning a luxury property a necessity in their asset portfolio. All indications are that this trend is here to stay, albeit that demand is set to return to a more sustainable level.”
If you own a luxury second home that isn’t being used as much anymore, now’s the time to sell. There are still buyers in the market who are looking for a home like yours today.
Let’s connect to explore the benefits of selling your second home this year.
Home equity has been a hot topic in real estate news lately. And if you’ve been following along, you may have heard there’s a growing number of homeowners with negative equity. But don’t let those headlines scare you.
In truth, the headlines don’t give you all the information you really need to understand what’s happening and at what scale. Let’s break down one of the big equity stories you may be seeing in the news, and what’s actually taking place. That way, you’ll have the context you need to understand the big picture.
One piece of news circulating focuses on the percentage of homes purchased in 2022 that are currently underwater. The term underwater refers to a scenario where the homeowner owes more on the loan than the house is worth. This was a huge issue when the housing market crashed in 2008, but it’s much less significant today.
Media coverage right now is based loosely on a report from Black Knight, Inc. The actual report from that source says this:
“Of all homes purchased with a mortgage in 2022, 8% are now at least marginally underwater and nearly 40% have less than 10% equity stakes in their home, . . .”
Let’s unpack that for a moment and provide the bigger picture. The data-bound report from Black Knight is talking specifically about homes purchased in 2022, but media headlines don’t always mention that timeframe or provide the surrounding context about how unusual of a year 2022 was for the housing market. In 2022, home price appreciation soared, and it reached its max around March-April. Since then, the rate of appreciation has been slowing down.
Homeowners who bought their house last year right at the peak or those who paid more than market value in the months that followed are more likely to fall into the category of being marginally underwater. The qualifier marginally is another key piece of the puzzle the media isn’t necessarily including in their coverage.
So, what does that mean for those who purchased a home in 2022? It’s important to remember, owning a home is a long-term investment, not a short-term play. When headlines focus on the short-term view, they’re not necessarily providing the full context.
Typically speaking, the longer you stay in your home, the more equity you gain as you pay down your loan and as home prices appreciate. With recent market conditions, you may not have gained significant equity right away if you owned the home for just a few months. But it’s also true that many homeowners who recently bought their house are unlikely to be looking to sell quite yet.
As with everything, knowing the context is important. If you have questions about real estate headlines or about how much equity you have in your home, let’s connect.
Economists and other housing experts predict the market will be more balanced among buyers and sellers. Home prices won’t change much while mortgage interest rates will continue to dip
While the slowing housing market has some expecting a crash in 2023, next year will likely be more humdrum, albeit still painful as the market continues to cool before an expected uptick in 2024, according to economic experts across the real estate industry.
In general, experts predict a more balanced market between homebuyers and sellers where home prices will either flatten, dip slightly or rise slightly while mortgage interest rates continue to decrease after a rapid rise this year and inventory bumps up marginally but not enough to make up for affordability challenges.
“The housing market has been running at a frenzied pace for the past two-and-a-half years, but the reckoning is at hand,” said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist for Bright MLS, in a 2023 U.S. housing market outlook.
“In the second half of 2022, high home prices and fast-rising mortgage rates stalled market activity. As demand dries up and price expectations are re-set, home prices in most local markets will be dropping from their pandemic peaks.”
According to Taylor Marr, deputy chief economist at Redfin, continued high mortgage rates are likely to make the 2023 housing market the slowest since 2011.
“We expect home sales to sink to their lowest level in more than a decade in 2023 as high mortgage rates keep housing costs up and prevent people from moving,” Marr said in a report outlining Redfin’s 2023 predictions.
“High homeowner equity and a resilient job market will stave off a wave of foreclosures.”
Fannie Mae is expecting a “modest recession” in 2023 with a predicted negative 0.5 percent in GDP growth before the economy expands by 2.2 percent in 2024.
“The economy caught its breath in the second half of 2022, but that doesn’t change our expectation that it will run out of air in early 2023 via a mild recession,” said Doug Duncan, senior vice president and chief economist at Fannie Mae in a statement.
“We expect housing to continue to slow, even though mortgage rates have come down recently. Home purchases remain unaffordable for many due to the rapid rise in rates over the last year and the fact that house prices, though certainly slowing and in some places declining, remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.
“Of course, refinancing is still not practical for the vast majority of current mortgage holders, which we expect will also continue to constrain mortgage origination activity.”
Danielle Hale, chief economist for Realtor.com, anticipates that everyone in the housing market — sellers, buyers, and renters — “may be underwhelmed” next year in what she called a “nobody’s-market” friendly to neither buyers nor sellers.
“The slowdown in home sales transactions that began as mortgage rates surged in 2022 is expected to continue, leading to a moderation in home price growth and tipping housing market balance away from sellers,” Hale said.
“But with mortgage rates continuing to climb as the Fed navigates the economy to a soft-ish landing, a moderation in home price growth will not be enough for the housing market to be a buyer’s bonanza. Instead, home shoppers will enjoy advantages such as a growing number of homes for sale, but costs will remain high, challenging affordability at a time when overall budgets continue to be squeezed.”
Here are five economic indicators to keep an eye on next year.
Mortgage rates
After starting the year at 3.2 percent, the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rose higher than 7 percent in October for the first time in more than two decades but has begun to decline. Experts differed on how much lower they expect the rate to fall in 2023.
Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors, expects the rate to settle at 5.7 percent as the Federal Reserve slows the pace of rate hikes to control inflation, lower than the pre-pandemic historical rate of 8 percent, according to an announcement from the 1.6-million-member trade group.
Similarly, Matthew Gardner, chief economist for Windermere, predicts rates will stay above 6 percent until the fall of 2023 and then “dip into the high 5 percent range,” which he noted was “still more than 2 percent lower than the historic average.”
Sturtevant predicted the rate would fall to 6 percent by the end of 2023 — much higher than in recent years but similar to the rate back before the Great Recession.
“Rising mortgage rates have been the main cause of the pullback in sales,” Sturtevant said. “The average rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will end 2022 around 6.5 percent after surpassing 7 percent earlier this fall. Mortgage rates will fall in 2023, but they will not come down nearly as quickly as they rose. Mortgage rates may have ended their steady upward rise, but expect volatility in rates throughout the rest of the winter before they begin to ease.”
Marr anticipates that the rate will end 2023 at around 5.8 percent, averaging about 6.1 percent for the year. That will make buying a home slightly more affordable than currently, but much less affordable than last year.
“Mortgage rates dipping from around 6.5 percent to 5.8 percent would save a homebuyer purchasing a $400,000 home about $150 on their monthly mortgage payment,” Marr said.
“To look at it another way, a homebuyer on a $2,500 monthly budget can afford a $383,750 home with a 6.5 percent rate; that same buyer could afford a $406,250 home with a 5.8 percent rate. Still, that’s much less affordable than a few years earlier. With a 3 percent rate, which was common in 2020 and 2021, that same buyer could afford a $517,000 home.”
Zillow’s research team predicted the affordability challenges that come with higher rates would mean more buyers will purchase homes with friends and family and more homeowners will become first-time landlords next year as they hold onto investment properties previously bought with record-low mortgage rates.
“A Zillow survey fielded this spring found that among successful recent homebuyers, 18 percent had purchased along with a friend or relative who wasn’t their spouse or partner, and 19 percent of prospective homebuyers intended to buy with a friend or relative in the next 12 months,” Zillow’s research team wrote in a report outlining its 2023 predictions.
“For both groups, affordability and qualifying for a mortgage were cited as the top reasons for buying together — challenges that are now even more acute. Mortgage payments for a typical U.S. home rose from needing 27 percent of median household income in January to 30 percent in March to 37 percent in October – far beyond the 30 percent threshold where housing becomes a financial burden.”
Home sales
While economists from Zillow and realtor.com predicted that existing-home sales would hit 16-year highs in 2022, sales actually dipped by 16.2 percent year over year, according to Yun. (Yun expected that sales would dip from 6 million in 2021 to 5.9 million in 2022, though sales fell further to 5.13 million). In 2023, Yun anticipates existing-home sales will decline 6.8 percent, to 4.78 million.
Sturtevant expects home sales will be lower in 2023 than in 2022 due to homebuyers purchasing homes earlier than planned when mortgage rates were low and to inventory remaining very low as homeowners decide to sit on lower mortgage rates. Existing-home sales are likely to reach 5.2 million by the end of the year, according to Sturtevant.
“While this is a decline of 15.1 percent from 2021, it is in line with the typical number of annual home sales prior to the pandemic,” she said.
“Overall, our forecasts are for there to be 4.87 million home sales nationally [in 2023], the first time the number of annual sales of existing homes falls below 5 million since 2014. Sales are projected to be down 6.4 percent from 2022 sales.”
Marr anticipates that home sales will fall to their lowest level since 2011 with a slow recovery in the second half of the year.
“We expect about 16% fewer existing home sales in 2023 than 2022, landing at 4.3 million, with would-be buyers pressing pause due mostly to affordability challenges including high mortgage rates, still-high home prices, persistent inflation and a potential recession,” he said.
“People will only move if they need to. That’s fewer home sales than any year since 2011, when the U.S. was reeling from the subprime mortgage crisis, and a 30 percent decline from 2021 during the pandemic homebuying boom.”
Hale predicts 2022 existing-home sales to add up to about 5.3 million, down 13.8 percent from 2021, and to decrease another 14.1 percent in 2023 to 4.5 million.
“The deceleration in home sales is likely to continue as high home prices and mortgage rates limit the pool of eligible home buyers,” she said.
Inventory
The for-sale housing supply is at historically low levels and likely to remain so even as inventory rises slightly in 2023 and new construction is focused on multifamily rentals, experts predict.
“Although inventory levels rose in 2022, they are still well below their long-term average,” Gardner said.
“In 2023, I don’t expect a significant increase in the number of homes for sale, as many homeowners do not want to lose their low mortgage rate. In fact, I estimate that 25 million to 30 million homeowners have mortgage rates around 3 percent or lower.
“Of course, homes will be listed for sale for the usual reasons of career changes, death and divorce, but the 2023 market will not have the normal turnover in housing that we have seen in recent years.”
Gardner does not expect a buyer’s market in 2023 but does expect a more balanced one.
“A buyer’s market is usually defined as having more than six months of available inventory, and the last time we reached that level was in 2012 when we were recovering from the housing bubble,” he said.
“To get to six months of inventory, we would have to reach 2 million listings, which hasn’t happened since 2015. In addition, monthly sales would have to drop to below 325,000, a number we haven’t seen in over a decade.”
Hale predicts that inventory levels will continue to grow gradually — by 4 percent in 202 and by 22.8 percent in 2023 — as the turnover of homes slows. That still puts inventory lower than in 2019.
“The level of inventory in 2023 is expected to fall roughly 15 percent short of the 2019 average,” Hale said. “In fact October 2022 was the first time that inventory climbed back to its 2020 level for the same time of year.”
Marr anticipates that building permits and housing starts will drop about 25 percent annually in 2023 with most of the pullback in single-family homes.
“Construction of single-family homes surged during the pandemic, which means builders need to offload the homes they have on hand without adding more supply to limit their financial losses,” Marr said.
“They’ll pull back dramatically in some markets like Phoenix and Dallas, where they built too many homes in anticipation of demand that’s failing to materialize.”
While he expects that rental building activity will fall slightly next year, he doesn’t expect it to fall as much as the construction of single-family homes.
“Constructing rental units, including apartment buildings and multifamily houses, will make more financial sense for builders next year, as rental demand won’t fall off as much,” he said.
“Some construction spending will shift to remodels, as many Americans hoping to move will instead opt to renovate in the face of high mortgage rates.”
Home prices
After rising by double-digits in 2021 — 16.9 percent, according to Yun — home prices nationwide are expected to end 2022 nearly 10 percent higher. Yun predicts a 9.6 percent jump this year while Sturtevant predicts a 9.5 percent jump. Experts’ forecasts on prices in 2023 vary from those thinking prices will remain flat to those expecting single-digit rises or dips.
“Home prices will be relatively stable in 2023, with the median price rising by just 0.3 percent,” Sturtevant said. “Stable prices nationally will be supported by relatively low inventory in 2023.”
Yun also expects median home prices to rise 0.3 percent to $385,800.
“The probability of a price crash is essentially very small given the lack of supply,” he said during a forecast webinar earlier this month.
“Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines,” Yun added. “However, markets in California may be the exception, with San Francisco, for example, likely to register price drops of 10–15 percent.”
At the same time, Hale anticipates home prices to continue to grow, though at a slower pace than in recent years, further eroding home affordability.
“Soaring prices were propelled by all-time low mortgage rates which are a thing of the past,” Hale said. “As a result, home price growth is expected to continue slowing, dipping below its pre-pandemic average to 5.4 percent for 2023, as a whole.
“As higher mortgage rates cut into homebuyer purchasing power, the monthly cost of financing the typical for-sale home will average more than $2,430 in 2023. This would be a nearly 28 percent increase over the mortgage payment in 2022, and roughly double the typical payment for buyers in 2021.”
Meanwhile, Marr predicts that home prices will post their first year-over-year decline in a decade in 2023, dropping about 4 percent to $368,000.
“That’s due to elevated rates and final sale prices starting to reflect homes that went under contract in late 2022,” he said.
“Prices would fall more if not for a lack of homes for sale: We expect new listings to continue declining through most of next year, keeping total inventory near historic lows and preventing prices from plummeting.”
Still, the country will avoid a wave of foreclosures, according to Marr.
“Very few homeowners are likely to see their mortgages fall underwater even with next year’s anticipated price declines,” he said.
“That’s because the homeowners who’ve had their home for at least a few years have fixed low mortgage payments and plentiful home equity after values skyrocketed during the pandemic. Even those who bought recently near the height of the market are likely to have made a sizable down payment and therefore have some equity to land on.
“Importantly, the jobs market remains resilient; even if there is a recession, economists expect a mild one with a small increase in unemployment, so it’s unlikely that many homeowners will fall behind on their mortgage payments.”
In response to some predictions that the market will crash next year because it’s in a bubble, Gardner was blunt: “There is no housing bubble.”
“Over the past couple of years, home prices got ahead of themselves due to a perfect storm of massive pandemic-induced demand and historically low mortgage rates,” he said.
“While I expect year-over-year price declines in 2023, I don’t believe there will be a systemic drop in home values. Furthermore, as financing costs start to pull back in 2023, I expect that will allow prices to resume their long-term average pace of growth.”
Gardner expects that affordability will continue to be a major problem for homebuyers due to relatively high mortgage rates, though Zillow’s research team expects affordability to stabilize, if not improve, in 2023.
“Zillow expects national home values to remain relatively flat next year, and even fall in the most affordability-challenged markets,” the research team said.
“Mortgage rates, highly impactful to the mortgage payment, are seeing some recent and encouraging progress downwards as inflation and labor market tightness show small signs of easing, enough to lead some to suggest the Federal Reserve may ease its aggressive monetary contraction. If we’ve actually turned the corner on inflation, that should continue.”
While home prices are not expected to change much overall next year, individual markets may fair differently. Experts generally predicted that relatively affordable Midwestern markets are likely to be strongest next year.
“Unlike nearly every other region in the United States, prices in most Midwest metro areas haven’t run up to extremes,” Zillow’s research team said.
“Mortgage costs as a share of income are still within healthy, sub-30 percent levels across Ohio, Pennsylvania, Kansas, upstate New York, Iowa and smaller metros in Illinois, which will allow first-time buyers to take the plunge. Lower rents and home prices in these areas make it easier to save up for a down payment.
“Having available houses to choose from is another key component of a healthy market, and the Midwest stands out — inventory isn’t in a massive hole compared to pre-pandemic times, and declines in new listings are smaller than the national average, encouraged by the more consistent demand from buyers.”
Meanwhile, markets with big run-ups in prices during the pandemic are likely to see the steepest declines, according to economists.
“Nationally, the median home price increased by an average of 10 percent annually between 2019 and 2022,” Sturtevant said.
“As remarkable as the national price growth has been, there are some metro areas where median asking prices grew even faster. These markets are among those at greatest risk of a significant price correction. Metro areas with the fastest three-year price appreciation include Austin (+53 percent), Tampa (+52 percent), and Miami (+50 percent).”
Bright’s forecast predicts that metro areas where price appreciation increased the fastest, where inventory has increased quickly, where sellers are dropping list prices, where affordability is a bigger challenge and where the labor market is weaker are likely to see significant price declines. The MLS singled out these metros in particular as fitting this criteria: Las Vegas, Nevada; Riverside-San Bernardino, California; Phoenix, Arizona; Austin, Texas; and Los Angeles, California.
For similar reasons, Redfin expects these markets to hold up best in 2023:
“Measures of homebuyer demand and competition in these metros are nearly as strong as they were in the beginning of 2022,” Marr said.
“On the other end of the spectrum, we expect prices to fall most in pandemic migration hotspots like Austin, Boise and Phoenix, largely because the huge increases over the last two years leave a lot of room for prices to decline.
“Expensive West Coast cities are also likely to see outsized price declines because of stumbling tech stocks and the shift to remote work pushing so many people out of those markets.”
Gardner agreed that markets where home price growth rose the fastest recently will likely see the biggest price declines, but that “even those markets will start to see prices stabilize by the end of 2023 and resume a more reasonable pace of price growth.”
*Inman, 12/28/22, Andrea V. Brambila.
The 2022 housing market has been defined by two key things: inflation and rapidly rising mortgage rates. And in many ways, it’s put the market into a reset position.
As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) made moves this year to try to lower inflation, mortgage rates more than doubled – something that’s never happened before in a calendar year. This had a cascading impact on buyer activity, the balance between supply and demand, and ultimately home prices. And as all those things changed, some buyers and sellers put their plans on hold and decided to wait until the market felt a bit more predictable.
But what does that mean for next year? What everyone really wants is more stability in the market in 2023. For that to happen we’ll need to see the Fed bring inflation down even more and keep it there. Here’s what housing market experts say we can expect next year.
Moving forward, experts agree it’s still going to be all about inflation. If inflation is high, mortgage rates will be as well. But if inflation continues to fall, mortgage rates will likely respond. While there may be early signs inflation is easing as we round out this year, we’re not out of the woods just yet. Inflation is still something to watch in 2023.
Right now, experts are factoring all of this into their mortgage rate forecasts for next year. And if we average those forecasts together, experts say we can expect rates to stabilize a bit more in 2023. Whether that’s between 5.5% and 6.5%, it’s hard for experts to say exactly where they’ll land. But based on the average of their projections, a more predictable rate is likely ahead (see chart below):
That means, we’ll start the year out about where we are right now. But we could see rates tick down if inflation continues to drop. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains:
“. . . mortgage rates could pull back meaningfully next year if inflation pressures ease.”
In the meantime, expect some volatility as rates will likely fluctuate in the weeks ahead. If we see inflation come back under control, that would be good news for the housing market.
Homes prices will always be defined by supply and demand. The more buyers and fewer homes there are on the market, the more home prices will rise. And that’s exactly what we saw during the pandemic.
But this year, things changed. We’ve seen home prices moderate and housing supply grow as buyer demand pulled back due to higher mortgage rates. The level of moderation has varied by local area – with the biggest changes happening in overheated markets. But do experts think that will continue?
The graph below shows the latest home price forecasts for 2023. As the different colored bars indicate, some experts are saying home prices will appreciate next year, and others are saying home prices will come down. But again, if we take the average of all the forecasts (shown in green), we can get a feel for what 2023 may hold.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. That means nationally, we’ll likely see relatively flat or neutral appreciation in 2023. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally . . . Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines.”
The 2023 housing market is going to be defined by mortgage rates, and rates will be determined by what happens with inflation. The best way to keep a pulse on what experts are projecting for next year is to lean on a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect.
WASHINGTON (December 13, 2022) – Lawrence Yun, National Association of Realtors (NAR) chief economist and senior vice president of research, forecasts that 4.78 million existing homes will be sold, prices will remain stable, and Atlanta will be the top real estate market to watch in 2023 and beyond. Yun unveiled the association’s forecast today during NAR’s fourth annual year-end Real Estate Forecast Summit.
Yun predicts home sales will decline by 6.8% compared to 2022 (5.13 million) and the median home price will reach $385,800 – an increase of just 0.3% from this year ($384,500).
“Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines,” Yun said. “However, markets in California may be the exception, with San Francisco, for example, likely to register price drops of 10–15%.”
Yun expects rent prices to rise 5% in 2023, following a 7% increase in 2022. He predicts foreclosure rates will remain at historically low levels in 2023, comprising less than 1% of all mortgages.
Yun forecasts U.S. GDP will grow by 1.3%, roughly half the typical historical pace of 2.5%. After eclipsing 7% in late 2022, he expects the 30-year fixed mortgage rate to settle at 5.7% as the Fed slows the pace of rate hikes to control inflation. Yun noted this is lower than the pre-pandemic historical rate of 8%.
NAR identified 10 real estate markets that it expects to outperform other metro areas in 2023. In order the markets are as follows:
“The demand for housing continues to outpace supply,” Yun said. “The economic conditions in place in the top 10 U.S. markets, all of which are located in the South, provide the support for home prices to climb by at least 5% in 2023.”
NAR selected the top 10 real estate markets to watch in 2023 based on how they compared to the national average on the following economic indicators: 1) better housing affordability; 2) greater numbers of renters who can afford to buy a median-priced home; 3) stronger job growth; 4) faster growth of information industry jobs; 5) higher shares of the information industry in the respective local GDPs; 6) migration gains; 7) shares of workers teleworking; 8) faster population growth; 9) faster growth of active housing inventory; and 10) smaller housing shortages.
To view NAR’s On the Horizon: Markets to Watch in 2023 and Beyond report, visit this page.
The National Association of Realtors® is America’s largest trade association, representing more than 1.5 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
*originally posted on RETechnology 12/15/22
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