Menu
To sell your home this spring, it may need more preparation than it would have a year or two ago. Today’s housing market has a different feel. There are more homes for sale than there were at this time last year, but inventory is still historically low. So, if a house has been sitting on the market for a while, that’s a sign it may not be hitting the mark for potential buyers. But here’s the thing. Right now, homes that are updated and priced at market value are still selling fast.
Today, homes with curb appeal that are presented well are still selling quickly, and sometimes over asking price. According to Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com:
“In a market where costs are still high and buyers can be a little choosier, it makes sense they’re going to really zero in on the homes that are the most appealing.”
With the spring buying season just around the corner, now’s the time to start getting your house ready to sell. And the best way to determine where to spend your time and money is to work with a trusted real estate agent who can help you understand which improvements are most valuable in your local market.
One way to prioritize updates that could bring a good return on your investment is to find smaller projects you can do yourself. Little updates that boost your curb appeal usually work well. Investopedia puts it this way:
“Curb-appeal projects make the property look good as soon as prospective buyers arrive. While these projects may not add a considerable amount of monetary value, they will help your home sell faster—and you can do a lot of the work yourself to save money and time.”
Small cosmetic updates, like refreshing some paint and power washing the exterior of your home, create a great first impression for buyers and help it stand out. Work with a real estate professional to find the low-cost projects you can tackle around your house that will appeal to buyers in your area.
When deciding what you need to do to your house before selling it, remember you’re making these repairs and updates for someone else. Prioritize projects that will help you sell faster or for more money over things that appeal to you as a homeowner.
The 2022 Remodeling Impact Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) highlights popular home improvements and what sort of return they bring for the investment (see graph below):
Remember to lean on your trusted real estate advisor
for the best advice on the updates you should invest in. They’ll know what
local buyers are looking for and have the latest insights of what your house
needs to sell quickly this spring.
As we approach the spring season, now’s the time to
get your house ready to sell.
Let’s connect today so you can find out which updates make the most sense.
If you’re thinking about buying a home, you might be focusing on previously owned ones. But with so few houses for sale today, it makes sense to consider all your options, and that includes a home that’s newly built.
The Number of Newly Built Homes Is on the Rise
While there are more houses for sale right now than there were at this time last year, there’s still a historically low number of homes available on the market. One reason for that is years of underbuilding—meaning there haven’t been enough new homes built to keep up with demand.
“While existing-home inventory remains limited, the silver lining for home buyers is that new-home inventory is on the rise, and a new home at the right price is a pretty good substitute.”
Builder Incentives Can Provide a Boost
While there a growing number of new homes for sale, builders are slowing that pace until they sell more of their current inventory. According to Logan Mohtashami, Lead Analyst at HousingWire:
“The builders have to work off the backlog of homes, but instead of 3%-4% mortgage rates, they’re dealing with 6% plus mortgage rates, which means they have to provide many incentives to make sure those homes sell.”
Many builders are now offering incentives to help buyers purchase these homes. Fleming also explains:
“The National Association of Home Builders reported that nearly two-thirds of builders were offering incentives, including mortgage rate buydowns, paying points for buyers and price reductions, which could entice potential home buyers.”
A builder who’s willing to pay to reduce your mortgage rate could be a game changer. Ksenia Potapov, Economist at First American, puts it this way:
“A one percentage-point decline in mortgage rates has the same impact on affordability as an 11 percent decline in house prices.”
Should You Buy a Brand-New Home?
The best way to decide what type of home to buy is to work with a trusted real estate professional who can help you weigh the pros and cons of each option. They know which homes are available in your local market, and which builders might be offering incentives that make sense for you.
Bottom Line
Even though there aren’t a lot of homes for sale today, new home inventory is on the rise, and many builders are offering incentives. Let’s connect so I can help you weigh the pros and cons of shopping for a new home versus an existing one.
If you’re thinking about making a move this year, a turnaround in the housing market could be exactly what you’ve been waiting for. Let’s connect to talk about the latest trends in our area.
Sales slowed throughout Loudoun County in November.
In the county’s housing market, there were 329 sales in the month of November, down 48% or 304 fewer sales than the previous year. The number of sales has dropped off in each of the local markets. The biggest decline in sales happened in Ashburn zip code 20147 which had 60 fewer sales compared to last year (-60.6%) and Chantilly zip code 20152 with 36 fewer sales than last year (-67.9%).
Pending sales are down from last year in Loudoun County.
In November, there were 288 pending sales in the county, 179 fewer pending sales than a year ago, which is a 38.3% decrease. The number of pending sales fell the most in Ashburn zip code 20147 with 32 fewer pending sales than a year ago (-41.6%) followed by Sterling zip code 20164 with 28 fewer pending sales than the previous year (-49.1%).
Home prices continue to climb in the county’s housing market.
The median sales price in Loudoun County was $637,500 in November, a price increase of $37,550 compared to the same time last year (+6.3%). The biggest price jump took place in Leesburg zip code 20175, with the median sales price rising by $238,725, a 42.9% increase. The median price also grew in Lovettsville zip code 20180 (+21.1%) and Aldie zip code 20105 (+18.9%). The sales price in Chantilly zip code 20152 fell by double digits this month, with home prices down $72,000 (-10.3%).
Inventory is on the rise as active listings continue to grow.
There were 504 active listings in the Loudoun County market at the end of November, up 88.8% which is 237 more listings than a year ago. The largest increase in listings this month was in Sterling zip code 20164 with 53 more active listings than last November (+331.3%) and Leesburg zip code 20176 which had 51 additional listings (+268.4%).
Data Note: The housing market data for all jurisdictions in Virginia was re-benchmarked in November 2021. Please note that Market Indicator Reports released prior to November 2021 were produced using the prior data vintage and may not tie to reports that use the current data set for some metrics. We recommend using the current reports for historical comparative analysis.
*Provided by DAAR, Dulles Area Association of Realtors
The 2022 housing market has been defined by two key things: inflation and rapidly rising mortgage rates. And in many ways, it’s put the market into a reset position.
As the Federal Reserve (the Fed) made moves this year to try to lower inflation, mortgage rates more than doubled – something that’s never happened before in a calendar year. This had a cascading impact on buyer activity, the balance between supply and demand, and ultimately home prices. And as all those things changed, some buyers and sellers put their plans on hold and decided to wait until the market felt a bit more predictable.
But what does that mean for next year? What everyone really wants is more stability in the market in 2023. For that to happen we’ll need to see the Fed bring inflation down even more and keep it there. Here’s what housing market experts say we can expect next year.
Moving forward, experts agree it’s still going to be all about inflation. If inflation is high, mortgage rates will be as well. But if inflation continues to fall, mortgage rates will likely respond. While there may be early signs inflation is easing as we round out this year, we’re not out of the woods just yet. Inflation is still something to watch in 2023.
Right now, experts are factoring all of this into their mortgage rate forecasts for next year. And if we average those forecasts together, experts say we can expect rates to stabilize a bit more in 2023. Whether that’s between 5.5% and 6.5%, it’s hard for experts to say exactly where they’ll land. But based on the average of their projections, a more predictable rate is likely ahead (see chart below):
That means, we’ll start the year out about where we are right now. But we could see rates tick down if inflation continues to drop. As Greg McBride, Chief Financial Analyst at Bankrate, explains:
“. . . mortgage rates could pull back meaningfully next year if inflation pressures ease.”
In the meantime, expect some volatility as rates will likely fluctuate in the weeks ahead. If we see inflation come back under control, that would be good news for the housing market.
Homes prices will always be defined by supply and demand. The more buyers and fewer homes there are on the market, the more home prices will rise. And that’s exactly what we saw during the pandemic.
But this year, things changed. We’ve seen home prices moderate and housing supply grow as buyer demand pulled back due to higher mortgage rates. The level of moderation has varied by local area – with the biggest changes happening in overheated markets. But do experts think that will continue?
The graph below shows the latest home price forecasts for 2023. As the different colored bars indicate, some experts are saying home prices will appreciate next year, and others are saying home prices will come down. But again, if we take the average of all the forecasts (shown in green), we can get a feel for what 2023 may hold.
The truth is probably somewhere in the middle. That means nationally, we’ll likely see relatively flat or neutral appreciation in 2023. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), says:
“After a big boom over the past two years, there will essentially be no change nationally . . . Half of the country may experience small price gains, while the other half may see slight price declines.”
The 2023 housing market is going to be defined by mortgage rates, and rates will be determined by what happens with inflation. The best way to keep a pulse on what experts are projecting for next year is to lean on a trusted real estate advisor. Let’s connect.
If you’re trying to decide whether or not to sell your house, recent headlines about home prices may be top of mind. And if those stories have you wondering what that means for your home’s value, here’s what you really need to know.
It’s possible you’ve seen news stories mentioning a drop in home values or home price depreciation, but it’s important to remember those headlines are designed to make a big impression in just a few words. But what headlines aren’t always great at is painting the full picture.
While home prices are down slightly month-over-month in some markets, it’s also true that home values are up nationally on a year-over-year basis. The graph below uses the latest data from S&P Case-Shiller to help tell the story of what’s actually happening in the housing market today:
As the graph shows, it’s true home price growth has moderated in recent months (shown in green) as buyer demand has pulled back in response to higher mortgage rates. This is what the headlines are drawing attention to today.
But what’s important to notice is the bigger, longer-term picture. While home price growth is moderating month-over-month, the percent of appreciation year-over-year is still well above the home price change we saw during more normal years in the market.
The bars for January 2019 through mid-2020 show home price appreciation around 3-4% a year was more typical (see bars for January 2019 through mid-2020). But even the latest data for this year shows prices have still climbed by roughly 10% over last year.
While you may not be able to capitalize on the 20% appreciation we saw in early 2022, in most markets your home’s value, on average, is up 10% over last year – and a 10% gain is still dramatic compared to a more normal level of appreciation (3-4%).
The big takeaway? Don’t let the headlines get in the way of your plans to sell. Over the past two years alone, you’ve likely gained a substantial amount of equity in your home as home prices climbed. Even though home price moderation will vary by market moving forward, you can still use the boost your equity got to help power your move.
As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“Potential home sellers gained significant amounts of equity over the pandemic, so even as affordability-constrained buyer demand spurs price declines in some markets, potential sellers are unlikely to lose all that they have gained.”
If you have questions about home prices or how much equity you have in your current home, let’s connect so you have an expert’s advice.
At first glance, the increase in housing supply compared to last year may not sound like good news for prospective sellers, but it actually gives you two key opportunities in today’s housing market.
An article from Calculated Risk helps put the inventory gains the market has seen in 2022 into perspective by comparing it to recent years (see graph below). It shows supply has surpassed 2021 levels by 58%. But the further back you look, the more you’ll understand the bigger picture. And if you go all the way back to 2019, the last normal year in real estate, we’re roughly 35% below the housing supply we had at that time.
If your current house no longer meets your needs or lacks the space and features you want, this inventory growth gives you even more opportunity to sell and move into the home of your dreams. With more houses on the market, you’ll have more to choose from when you search for your next home.
Partnering with a local real estate professional can help you make sure you’re up to date on the homes available in your area. And when you do find the one, a professional can advise you on how to write a winning offer.
But again, despite the growth, inventory is still low compared to more normal years, and that isn’t going to change overnight. For you, that means your house should still be in demand among potential buyers if you price it right.
As an article from realtor.com says:
“Today’s shoppers generally have more homes to consider than last year’s shoppers did, but the market is still not back to pre-pandemic inventory levels.”
If you’re a homeowner looking to sell, you have more homes to choose from and can still sell your house while inventory is low overall. Let’s connect to get started, so you can have the best of both worlds.
![Reasons To Sell Your House This Season [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM](https://files.mykcm.com/2022/12/08121045/Reasons-To-Sell-Your-House-This-Season-MEM-1046x2601.png)
If you’re thinking about buying or selling a home this year, you may have questions about what’s happening with home prices today as the market cools. In the simplest sense, nationally, experts don’t expect prices to come crashing down, but the level of home price moderation will depend on factors like supply and demand in each local market.
That means, moving forward, home price appreciation will continue to vary by location, with more significant changes happening in overheated areas. Here’s a quick snapshot of what the experts are saying:
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, says:
“The major question on the minds of homeowners and aspiring buyers alike is what will happen to home prices. . . Soaring prices were propelled by all-time low mortgage rates which are a thing of the past. As a result, home price growth is expected to continue slowing, dipping below its pre-pandemic average to 5.4% for 2023, as a whole.”
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, says:
“House price appreciation has slowed in all 50 markets we track, but the deceleration is generally more dramatic in areas that experienced the strongest peak appreciation rates.”
Taylor Marr, Deputy Chief Economist at Redfin, says:
“For those bearish folks eagerly awaiting the home price crash, you’ll have to keep waiting. As much as demand is pulling back supply is as well reducing downward pressure on prices in the short run.”
John Paulson, Founder of Paulson & Co., says:
“It’s true – housing may be a little frothy. So housing prices may come down or they may plateau . . .”
The best way to get the answers you need is to lean on a local real estate advisor. They’ll be able to explain the latest trends in your specific market so you can make a confident and informed decision on your next step toward buying or selling a home.
If you have questions about what’s happening with home prices today, let’s connect so you have the latest on our local market.
Please fill out the form below and we will be contacting you shortly
with information about your home.
